In 2000 the conflicts of the preceding decade in the Caucasus had generated a number of 1,970,000 refugees. Though showing in most cases supporting and human, local governments refused to think of the problem as a long term one, preferring to support the expedient view that repatriation can take place quickly. As to the international community, it continued to be caught unprepared and passive in face of ongoing crises. The author notably sheds light on the exacerbation of the situation by the international agencies, taking the attitude that the emergency phase is over, and creating tensions between the donors, their implementing agencies, and the recipient governments. The author’s diagnostic on the good quality of the negotiations between the Georgian government and the authorities of South Ossetia, and his prognostic asserting “the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities is now negligible” suggests all the difficulty of prevision in this matter, and the weight of parameters alien to the refugee issue and to its management.